MISSION BRIEF
CRISIS · SUS BDE · 48 HRSRed Sea and Bab el-Mandeb convoy sustainment under Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile, one-way-attack UAS, and USV attack, modeled on the Prosperity Guardian era and the Rubymar and Tutor sinkings.
Keep the theater sustainment flow moving through a contested chokepoint without losing a hull, while insurers, charter crews, and partner escorts all pull in different directions.
All chartered hulls transit or divert with an approved risk decision; no mariner casualty; the alternate Cape routing is costed and briefed before the CDR has to choose.
- Sequence convoys against escort availability and threat windows.
- Manage charter, insurance, and crew-refusal friction as an operational constraint.
- Protect the sustainment picture from AIS spoofing and cyber intrusion.
OPENING INJECTS
5 SEEDED- T+00:08SEAHIGH · S3ASBM near-miss on a chartered ammunition hull
An anti-ship ballistic missile impacts 400 m off the starboard quarter of a chartered vessel carrying Class V, 55 nm off Hodeidah. No damage, no casualties. The master declares he will not continue north and is turning for Djibouti. Escort is 90 minutes astern.
- T+00:44SEAHIGH · FIRESUSV swarm closes the convoy from the Yemeni coast
Three unmanned surface vessels, low radar cross-section, close at 35 knots from a fishing cluster inshore. Two are engaged; one detonates 150 m from the trailing hull. Fishing dhows are within 500 m of the launch point throughout the engagement.
- T+01:25AIRMED · S4War-risk premium spike closes two charters
After the overnight attacks, war-risk premiums for the transit jump sharply and two charter operators suspend Red Sea bookings entirely. The alternate Cape of Good Hope routing adds 10-14 days and roughly 3,500 nm to every affected hull.
- T+02:00SPACEMED · S6Spoofed AIS puts allied warships on false tracks
Commercial tracking services show two allied escorts in positions they are not in, and one chartered hull broadcasting a false destination and flag. The convoy commander's shared maritime picture and the commercial picture no longer agree.
- T+03:10CYBERMED · CYBERPhishing against the port agent's manifest system
A credential-harvesting campaign targets the Djibouti port agent handling the brigade's manifests. One account is confirmed compromised. Manifests include hull names, cargo classes, and berth times for the next six days of sustainment traffic.